俄稱蘇-75最快明年首飛　專家質疑戰時難以落實

As geopolitical tensions continue to rise, nations are accelerating military modernization, particularly in airpower. Russia has recently signaled that its next-generation Su-75 stealth fighter could conduct its maiden flight in early 2026. However, Chinese military analysts caution that amid the ongoing Ukraine war and sustained Western sanctions, Moscow’s willingness and capacity to advance a new fighter program remain highly uncertain.

試飛員與國防高層釋出正面訊號

Test Pilot and Defense Leadership Offer Optimistic Signals

中國航空工業集團旗下媒體《中國航空報》指出，俄軍試飛員謝爾蓋・博格丹近日出席杜拜航空展時對媒體表示，蘇-75戰機已進入工廠階段，正進行最後調校，俄方目標是在2026年初完成首次試飛。

According to the China Aviation News, Russian test pilot Sergey Bogdan stated at the Dubai Airshow that the Su-75 has entered the factory phase and is undergoing final adjustments, with a maiden flight targeted for early 2026.

此外，俄羅斯國家技術集團（Rostec）總經理謝爾蓋・切梅佐夫在接受《塔斯社》專訪時也強調，相關研發工作仍在推進中，未來數月內將展開更多測試。他形容蘇-75在效能、價格與整體品質上具備市場競爭力，認為該機型仍有出口潛力。

Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov told TASS that development efforts remain ongoing and that additional testing will take place in the coming months. He described the Su-75 as competitive in performance, cost, and overall quality, asserting that it retains market potential.

定位為低成本隱形戰機　主攻出口市場

Positioned as a Cost-Effective Stealth Fighter for Export

報導指出，蘇-75於2021年莫斯科航展首度亮相，原訂2023年試飛，但因俄烏戰爭爆發而多次延期，目前暫定為2026年初。該機採單引擎設計，最大起飛重量約26噸，擁有三個內部彈艙與多個外掛點，最大武器酬載約7.4噸，最高速度預估可達1.8至2.0馬赫。

The Su-75 was first unveiled at the 2021 Moscow Airshow and was originally scheduled to fly in 2023, but repeated delays followed the outbreak of the Ukraine war. The aircraft is a single-engine design with a maximum takeoff weight of roughly 26 tons, featuring three internal bays and multiple external hardpoints, a payload of up to 7.4 tons, and an estimated top speed of Mach 1.8–2.0.

分析認為，單引擎架構加上與蘇-57共用部分零組件，有助於降低全壽期成本與後勤負擔，對國防預算有限的潛在買家更具吸引力，也有利於提高部署數量，執行長時間巡邏與警戒任務。

Analysts note that the single-engine layout and parts commonality with the Su-57 could reduce lifecycle costs and logistical complexity, making the Su-75 more appealing to budget-constrained buyers seeking higher fleet numbers for sustained patrol and air defense missions.

匿蹤取向偏重正面RCS　規劃多種衍生型

Stealth Focuses on Frontal RCS, Multiple Variants Envisioned

在匿蹤設計方面，報導指出蘇-75延續蘇-57的設計思路，重點在於降低正面雷達反射截面積（RCS），而非追求全向匿蹤能力。其配備AESA雷達與紅外線搜索與追蹤系統（IRST），可在高電磁干擾環境中維持一定作戰效能。

Regarding stealth design, the Su-75 follows the Su-57 philosophy by prioritizing reduced frontal radar cross-section rather than full-aspect stealth. It is expected to feature an AESA radar and an infrared search and track (IRST) system to maintain combat effectiveness in contested electromagnetic environments.

俄方亦規劃以單座型為基礎，發展雙座與無人化衍生型，強化未來空戰彈性與體系整合能力。

Russia also plans to develop two-seat and unmanned variants based on the single-seat Su-75, aiming to enhance flexibility and system integration for future air combat operations.

戰時壓力與產能瓶頸　前景仍受質疑

Wartime Constraints and Production Bottlenecks Cloud Outlook

然而，該報導直言，在戰事與制裁雙重壓力下，蘇-75的研發前景仍不明朗。以現役蘇-57為例，俄空天軍於2022至2024年間僅接收約18架，距離原訂76架的採購目標仍有顯著落差。

The report cautions that under wartime and sanctions pressure, the Su-75 program faces serious uncertainty. As an example, only around 18 Su-57 fighters were delivered to the Russian Aerospace Forces between 2022 and 2024, far short of the planned 76-aircraft order.

切梅佐夫本人亦坦言，當前首要任務仍是滿足前線作戰需求，新型裝備開發勢必受到排擠。他並指出，一款成熟戰機從首飛到服役通常需10至15年，蘇-57亦耗時近10年，顯示蘇-75短期內服役的可能性有限。

Chemezov himself acknowledged that meeting frontline operational demands takes priority, inevitably constraining new development programs. He noted that a mature fighter typically requires 10 to 15 years from first flight to service entry, with the Su-57 taking nearly a decade—casting doubt on the Su-75 entering service anytime soon.

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