東協坐擁全球關鍵礦產　成高科技供應鏈重要樞紐

ASEAN Emerges as a Critical Minerals Powerhouse

印尼目前供應全球超過60%的鎳（Nickel），菲律賓則是全球最大鎳礦出口國，估計擁有約1,700億美元的鎳礦資源。再加上錫、銅、鋁土礦及稀土元素（REEs）等豐富儲量，東南亞已成為全球高科技產業供應鏈不可或缺的重要來源。

Indonesia accounts for more than 60 percent of global nickel supply, while the Philippines is the world's largest exporter of nickel ore with an estimated US$170 billion in reserves. Together with abundant tin, copper, bauxite, and rare earth elements (REEs), Southeast Asia has become increasingly important to global high-tech supply chains.

隨著全球電動車、人工智慧（AI）、半導體及再生能源需求快速成長，東協（ASEAN）國家希望利用這項天然優勢，推動產業升級與經濟成長。

As demand for electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and renewable energy accelerates worldwide, ASEAN countries are seeking to leverage these resources to drive industrial transformation and economic growth.

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關鍵礦產不只是原料　更是產業升級戰略資產

東協希望擺脫原料出口角色

Moving Beyond Raw Material Exports

對東協而言，關鍵礦產已不只是出口商品，而是推動產業升級的重要基礎。

For ASEAN, critical minerals are no longer merely export commodities; they are strategic foundations for industrial upgrading.

過去多數東協國家主要出口原礦，但如今政策重點已轉向建立本土精煉、加工與製造能力，希望從低附加價值的礦產出口國，轉型為高附加價值的產業製造基地。

Historically, ASEAN countries primarily exported raw minerals. Today, policymakers aim to develop domestic refining, processing, and manufacturing capabilities to move up the value chain.

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東協鎖定四大高成長產業

ASEAN's Target Industries

東協已將多項高度依賴關鍵礦產的新興產業列為未來發展重點：

ASEAN has identified several mineral-intensive sectors as key economic priorities:

• 電動車（Electric Vehicles）
• 鋰離子電池（Lithium-ion Batteries）
• 太陽能光電（Solar Photovoltaics）
• 半導體產業（Semiconductors）

這些產業都需要大量鎳、銅、鈷與稀土元素作為核心材料。

These industries require significant quantities of nickel, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements as essential inputs.

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東協的最大難題：升級產業卻更依賴中國

礦產加工能力高度集中於中國

China Dominates Critical Mineral Processing

然而，東協的產業升級計畫面臨一項結構性矛盾。

However, ASEAN faces a major structural dilemma.

雖然東協擁有豐富礦產資源，但全球關鍵礦產精煉與加工能力仍高度集中於中國。

While ASEAN possesses abundant mineral resources, global refining and processing capacity remains heavily concentrated in China.

目前中國掌握：

China currently controls:

• 超過90%的全球稀土精煉能力
• 約60%至70%的鋰加工能力
• 約60%至70%的鈷加工能力
• More than 90% of global rare-earth refining capacity
• Around 60–70% of lithium processing
• Around 60–70% of cobalt processing

換言之，東協若想進軍高階製造業，仍需依賴中國掌握的中游加工體系。

In other words, ASEAN's ambitions to move into higher-value industries still depend heavily on China's dominance in midstream processing.

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印尼鎳產業高度依賴中國資本

Indonesia's Refining Sector Controlled by Chinese Investment

以印尼為例，中國企業目前控制約75%的鎳精煉產能。

Indonesia provides a clear example, with Chinese firms controlling roughly 75 percent of the country's nickel refining capacity.

大量鎳加工園區與相關基礎設施均由中國資金投入建設。

Many of Indonesia's industrial parks and processing facilities have been financed and developed by Chinese companies.

因此，即使印尼擁有全球最豐富的鎳資源，其產業發展仍與中國資本深度綁定。

As a result, Indonesia's nickel industry remains closely tied to Chinese capital despite its vast domestic resources.

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區域供應鏈存在潛在脆弱性

少數國家掌握大部分產量

Concentrated Supply Creates Vulnerabilities

東協另一項風險在於礦產供應高度集中。

Another challenge lies in the concentration of mineral production within a few countries.

例如：

For example:

• 印尼主導鎳產量
• 菲律賓掌握大量鎳與銅資源
• Indonesia dominates nickel production
• The Philippines is a major producer of nickel and copper

若任一主要生產國出現政治、經濟或安全問題，都可能衝擊整個東協供應鏈。

Any disruption affecting major producers could have cascading impacts across ASEAN supply chains and industries.

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基礎建設與資金需求龐大

建立完整供應鏈需要長期投資

Financing Remains a Major Challenge

礦場開發、精煉廠建設與製造產業鏈形成，往往需要數年甚至十年以上時間。

Developing mines, processing facilities, and integrated supply chains requires substantial long-term investment and often takes many years.

由於多數東協國家仍屬開發中經濟體，因此面臨資金不足問題。

Many ASEAN economies still face infrastructure and financing constraints.

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多國積極投入資金支援

New Financing Initiatives Emerging

為降低對單一供應鏈依賴，國際社會近年積極投入相關計畫。

In response, several international initiatives have emerged to support diversification.

包括：

These include:

• 亞洲開發銀行（ADB）2026年推出新融資工具
• 日本推動「亞洲零排放共同體」（AZEC）
• 「能源與資源韌性夥伴計畫」（Partnership on Wide Energy and Resources Resilience）
• 世界銀行加入相關合作機制
• New ADB financing tools launched in 2026
• Japan's Asia Zero Emission Community initiative
• Energy and resource resilience partnerships
• World Bank participation

這些措施旨在協助東協建立更完整的礦產供應鏈體系。

These efforts aim to strengthen ASEAN's industrial and supply-chain resilience.

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美中競爭加劇　東協面臨選邊壓力

關鍵礦產已成地緣經濟競爭核心

Critical Minerals Become Strategic Assets

近年美國積極推動關鍵礦產聯盟，包括：

In recent years, the United States has expanded critical-mineral partnerships through initiatives such as:

• Pax Silica
• 美國關鍵礦產部長級會議（US Critical Minerals Ministerial）
• 與印尼、馬來西亞及泰國簽署雙邊合作協議
• Pax Silica
• US Critical Minerals Ministerial
• Bilateral agreements with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand

這些合作有助於東協獲得更多投資與技術支援。

These partnerships could provide ASEAN with additional investment and technological support.

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東協內部可能出現路線分歧

Risk of Internal Fragmentation

然而，並非所有東協國家都願意完全加入美國主導的供應鏈體系。

Not all ASEAN members are equally willing to align with US-led supply-chain frameworks.

部分國家可能選擇深化與中國的經濟合作，而另一些國家則傾向與美國、日本及澳洲建立更緊密夥伴關係。

Some may strengthen ties with China, while others move closer to the United States, Japan, or Australia.

這種差異可能使東協內部在供應鏈布局與產業政策上出現分裂。

Such differences could create fractures within ASEAN's broader economic and industrial strategy.

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軍事、AI與能源轉型將持續推升需求

礦產戰略地位只會更加重要

Demand Expected to Continue Rising

除了電動車與再生能源外，人工智慧與國防工業也正在成為關鍵礦產的新需求來源。

Beyond EVs and renewable energy, AI infrastructure and defense industries are becoming major consumers of critical minerals.

例如：

Examples include:

• AI資料中心需要大量銅與稀土
• 電池儲能系統需要鎳與鋰
• 雷達與飛彈系統需要稀土材料
• 軍事電子設備需要高性能半導體
• AI data centers require copper and rare earths
• Energy storage depends on nickel and lithium
• Radar and missile systems rely on rare-earth materials
• Advanced military electronics require semiconductor supply chains

因此，關鍵礦產的重要性未來只會持續上升。

As a result, the strategic value of critical minerals is expected to increase further in the coming decades.

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軍聞分析

東協未來面臨三大關鍵考驗

Key Strategic Challenges for ASEAN

一、能否從礦產出口國升級為科技製造中心

東協若能建立完整加工與製造能力，將有機會複製東亞工業化成功模式。

If ASEAN can develop full refining and manufacturing capabilities, it may achieve a major industrial transformation.

二、如何降低對中國加工體系依賴

擁有礦產不等於掌握供應鏈，未來誰掌握加工能力，誰就掌握產業主導權。

Resource ownership alone does not guarantee supply-chain control; processing capacity remains the key strategic leverage point.

三、如何維持東協內部團結

面對美中競逐，東協若無法協調共同政策，恐將削弱區域整合與談判能力。

Amid intensifying US-China competition, maintaining ASEAN cohesion may be as important as securing investment and technology.

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總結

Conclusion

東協正站在全球關鍵礦產供應鏈重組的重要十字路口。豐富的礦產資源為其帶來前所未有的產業升級機會，但同時也伴隨供應鏈依賴、資金缺口與地緣政治競爭等挑戰。

ASEAN stands at a pivotal moment in the restructuring of global critical-mineral supply chains. Its abundant resources provide a unique opportunity for industrial upgrading, but also expose the region to financing challenges, supply-chain dependencies, and growing geopolitical competition.

未來東協能否真正從「礦產供應者」轉型為「高科技產業參與者」，關鍵將取決於誰提供資金、誰掌握加工技術，以及東協自身能否建立具韌性的區域供應鏈體系。

Whether ASEAN evolves from a supplier of raw materials into a major participant in advanced technology industries will depend on financing, processing capabilities, and the region's ability to build resilient and integrated supply chains.