照片

美國國務卿 Marco Rubio(圖片取自法新社)

川普尚未拍板　大型對台軍售案持續評估

美國國務卿 Marco Rubio 8日出席參議院外交委員會（Senate Foreign Relations Committee）聽證會時表示，總額約140億美元的對台軍售案目前仍處於審查階段，尚未獲得最終批准。

 Rubio指出，美方去年12月已批准價值111億美元的對台軍售案，但另一筆規模更大的140億美元軍售方案，目前仍由行政部門持續評估中。

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday that a proposed $14 billion arms package for Taiwan remains under review and has not yet received final approval.

Rubio noted that Washington approved an $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan in December, while the larger $14 billion package is still being evaluated by the administration.

美方重申政策不變　維持台海現狀為優先

 Rubio：台灣政策沒有改變

面對議員詢問軍售進度時， Rubio表示，美國目前最重要目標仍是維持台海現狀。

他表示：「我們希望維持目前的現狀（status quo）。」

 Rubio進一步強調，美中台三方關係向來十分敏感且複雜，但華府對台政策並未出現改變。

When questioned about the proposed sale, Rubio stated that preserving the current status quo across the Taiwan Strait remains Washington’s primary objective.

“We want to see the status quo preserved as it is at this moment,” Rubio said.

He added that while the triangular relationship between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei remains highly delicate, US policy toward Taiwan has not changed.

川普將軍售視為談判籌碼

北京持續反對對台軍售

美國總統 Donald Trump 先前曾公開表示，這筆140億美元軍售案是一項「非常好的談判籌碼」（a very good negotiating chip），顯示其可能將軍售議題納入與中國談判的整體框架之中。

上月川普前往北京與中國國家主席習近平舉行高峰會期間，中方再次表達反對美國對台軍售立場。不過峰會結束後，川普並未就是否批准軍售案作出承諾。

US President Donald Trump previously described the proposed $14 billion package as “a very good negotiating chip,” suggesting the issue could be tied to broader US-China negotiations.

During a summit in Beijing last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping again voiced opposition to American arms sales to Taiwan. However, Trump made no commitment regarding approval of the package following the meeting.

伊朗戰事影響軍火供應

美方曾暫停部分軍售作業

值得注意的是，美國官員先前已透露，為確保美軍在中東執行對伊朗相關軍事行動時擁有足夠彈藥儲備，美方曾於5月底暫時凍結部分對外軍售程序。

當時代理海軍部長曾表示，相關措施主要是優先確保美軍自身作戰需求，因此部分海外軍售案出現延後情況。

雖然外界關注台灣是否受到影響，但目前台灣方面表示，尚未接獲任何美方將取消或調整軍售案的正式通知。

The review also comes after US officials acknowledged in late May that some foreign military sales had been temporarily paused to ensure sufficient munitions stockpiles for American operations involving Iran.

US defense officials indicated that maintaining US military readiness took priority, leading to delays in certain overseas weapons transfers.

Taiwanese authorities have stated that they have not received any formal notification suggesting the proposed arms package will be canceled or significantly altered.

軍事觀察

軍售案關鍵不在是否出售　而在交付時間

目前最值得關注的問題，其實未必是140億美元軍售案是否獲准，而是何時能夠開始交付。

近年美軍自身擴軍、烏克蘭戰爭、中東衝突以及印太戰略需求，使美國軍工產能長期處於高負荷狀態。包括 F-16V Fighting Falcon 、M1A2T Abrams 、Harpoon Block II 與各型防空飛彈等裝備，都面臨不同程度的交付排程壓力。

從近期美方多次提及彈藥庫存與產能問題來看，即使軍售案最終獲得批准，後續交付速度與優先順位，仍將是影響台灣戰力建構的重要變數。

The most important issue may no longer be whether the $14 billion package is approved, but how quickly the weapons can actually be delivered.

Ongoing commitments related to military expansion, support for Ukraine, Middle East operations, and Indo-Pacific deterrence have placed significant strain on US defense production capacity. Systems such as the F-16V Fighting Falcon, M1A2T Abrams, Harpoon Block II, and various missile inventories all face production and delivery bottlenecks.

As a result, even if the package ultimately receives approval, manufacturing capacity and delivery schedules may prove just as strategically significant as the political decision itself.