北約掀「低成本攔截無人機」競賽　低成本，成為戰場最大關鍵

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(Henning Kaiser/picture alliance via Getty Images)

隨著俄烏戰爭改變全球戰場樣貌，北約國家如今正快速投入一場新的軍備競賽──不是比誰的武器最昂貴，而是比「誰的無人機更便宜、更能大量生產」。

北約近期正在密切評估各類「攔截型無人機（Interceptor Drone）」方案，希望用更低成本方式，攔截敵方大量來襲的無人機威脅。

這類無人機的核心概念很直接：
用價格更低的小型無人機，去擊落敵方無人機，而不是動用昂貴飛彈。

因為現代戰場已經出現一個明顯問題──「攔截成本失衡」。

例如，俄羅斯與伊朗系統大量使用價格相對便宜的自殺無人機，但烏克蘭與西方國家往往必須使用數十萬甚至上百萬美元的防空飛彈應對。長期下來，防守方的成本壓力極大。

如今，北約希望透過低成本攔截無人機，改變這種不對稱局面。

報導指出，目前各國與軍工企業正在測試不同概念，包括：

• 直接撞擊敵方無人機
• 使用網槍攔截
• AI自動追蹤
• 群體式蜂群攔截
• 可重複使用型攔截機

其中，「價格」成為最重要指標之一。

因為戰場上最怕的，不是無法擊落敵機，而是「擊落一架敵機，卻花掉比敵人更多的成本」。

許多北約官員坦言，未來無人機戰場將像「空中的消耗戰」，數量、量產能力與成本控制，可能比單純性能更重要。

專家也指出，未來軍隊可能會像消耗砲彈一樣消耗無人機，因此「便宜、快速、容易生產」將成為新世代軍備的重要標準。

除了歐洲外，美國也正積極推動「協同作戰無人機（CCA）」與各類反無人機系統。從中東到印太地區，各國都開始擔心未來可能面臨大規模無人機飽和攻擊。

對台灣而言，這種發展尤其值得注意。

由於台海可能面臨大量無人機、巡飛彈與灰色地帶襲擾，如何用更低成本建立防空網，已成為未來國防重點之一。

未來的空戰與防空，也可能不再只是戰機與飛彈的競爭，而是「誰能更便宜地持續消耗對手」。

三個觀察重點

1️⃣ 未來戰場比的可能不是性能，而是「成本」

俄烏戰爭證明，再昂貴的防空系統，也可能被大量廉價無人機拖垮。

2️⃣ 無人機將像彈藥一樣大量消耗

未來軍隊可能需要每天消耗數百架無人機，量產能力與供應鏈會越來越重要。

3️⃣ 台灣需要建立「低成本防空層」

若未來台海面對大量無人機襲擾，傳統飛彈可能不夠用，台灣需要更便宜、更大量的反無人機方案。

As the Russia-Ukraine war continues to reshape modern warfare, NATO countries are now entering a new kind of arms race — not over who has the most expensive weapons, but over whose drones are cheaper and easier to mass produce.

NATO is currently evaluating various “interceptor drone” concepts aimed at countering large numbers of incoming enemy drones at a much lower cost.

The idea is simple:
Use small, low-cost drones to destroy enemy drones instead of relying on expensive air-defense missiles.

This approach addresses a growing problem on today’s battlefield — the “cost imbalance” of air defense.

For example, Russia and Iranian-designed systems have heavily relied on relatively cheap suicide drones, while Ukraine and Western countries often respond with air-defense missiles costing hundreds of thousands — or even millions — of dollars each. Over time, this creates enormous financial pressure on defenders.

NATO now hopes low-cost interceptor drones can help reverse this imbalance.

According to reports, governments and defense companies are testing several concepts, including:

• Direct collision interceptor drones
• Net-launching interception systems
• AI-assisted autonomous tracking
• Swarm-based drone interception
• Reusable interceptor drones

Among all requirements, “price” has become one of the most important factors.

Because on the battlefield, the worst outcome is not failing to shoot down an enemy drone — it is destroying one cheaply made drone with something far more expensive.

Many NATO officials admit future drone warfare could resemble an “aerial war of attrition,” where quantity, mass production, and cost control become more important than pure performance.

Experts also believe militaries may eventually consume drones the same way they consume artillery shells today. As a result, “cheap, fast, and easy to manufacture” could become the defining standard for next-generation military systems.

Beyond Europe, the United States is also aggressively advancing Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) programs and counter-drone technologies. From the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, governments are increasingly concerned about future large-scale drone saturation attacks.

For Taiwan, this trend deserves close attention.

The Taiwan Strait could potentially face massive drone swarms, loitering munitions, and gray-zone harassment operations in future conflicts. Building a layered air-defense network at lower cost may become one of Taiwan’s most important defense priorities.

Future air warfare and air defense may no longer be defined solely by fighter jets and missiles — but by who can sustain the fight more affordably and efficiently.

Three Key Observations

1️⃣ Future wars may be decided by cost, not just performance

The Russia-Ukraine war has shown that even advanced air-defense systems can be overwhelmed by large numbers of cheap drones.

2️⃣ Drones may become as expendable as ammunition

Future militaries could consume hundreds of drones daily, making production capacity and supply chains increasingly critical.

3️⃣ Taiwan may need a low-cost layered air-defense strategy

If Taiwan faces mass drone threats in the future, traditional missile defenses alone may not be enough. More affordable and scalable counter-drone systems will likely become essential.