中國無人機威脅升級？台海衝突風險大增!

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中國無人機威脅升級？台海衝突風險大增

China's Drone Threat: A Growing Risk for Taiwan

美國國防政策智庫「詹姆斯敦基金會」近期發布研究報告指出，中國正在俄烏戰爭中吸取無人機作戰經驗，並可能將這些技術應用於對台軍事行動，對台灣構成前所未有的安全威脅。

The Jamestown Foundation, a U.S. defense policy think tank, recently published a report warning that China is leveraging the Russia-Ukraine war to refine its drone warfare tactics—potentially applying these advancements to a future Taiwan conflict, posing an unprecedented security threat.

報告分析指出，中國視俄烏戰場為無人機技術的試驗場，特別關注電子干擾、反無人機作戰與自主攻擊系統的應用，這些技術將進一步提升中國在台海戰場的優勢。

The analysis suggests that China is using the Ukraine conflict as a testing ground for drone technology, focusing on electronic interference, counter-drone warfare, and autonomous attack systems—capabilities that could significantly enhance its advantage in a potential Taiwan Strait confrontation.

針對台灣的隱藏軍事準備

研究報告發現，中國不僅輸出軍備給俄羅斯，還透過與烏克蘭無人機企業合作，從中獲取關鍵作戰數據，這些數據可能直接影響中國未來對台戰略。

The report reveals that China has been supplying Russia with military equipment while simultaneously collaborating with Ukrainian drone firms, gathering critical combat data that could directly inform Beijing’s future strategies against Taiwan.

港裔研究員張崑陽（Sunny Cheung）指出，中國的真正目標並非烏克蘭戰場，而是利用這場戰爭學習先進無人機戰術，為未來可能的對台攻勢做準備。

Sunny Cheung, a Hong Kong-born researcher, emphasized that China's primary objective is not the Ukraine battlefield itself but rather leveraging the conflict to acquire cutting-edge drone tactics—potentially setting the stage for an offensive against Taiwan.

中國如何從俄烏戰爭學習對台攻勢？

報告提及，俄軍在烏克蘭札波羅熱（Zaporizhzhia）戰區成功運用「雙無人機戰術」，先摧毀防禦系統，再進行精確攻擊，中國軍方對此高度關注，可能將該戰術應用於台海戰場。

The report notes that Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia effectively used a “dual-drone tactic,” where one drone disabled enemy defenses while a second conducted precision strikes. This tactic has drawn significant interest from China’s military, which may adapt it for a future Taiwan conflict.

此外，報告指出，中國解放軍正在發展AI驅動的無人機戰術，以強化戰場決策能力，並透過隱形與電子對抗技術，提高無人機在台海戰場的存活率。

Furthermore, the report highlights China’s ongoing development of AI-driven drone tactics, designed to enhance battlefield decision-making. Combined with stealth and electronic countermeasures, these capabilities could significantly increase drone survivability in a Taiwan Strait conflict.

對台灣的緊迫安全威脅

張崑陽警告，這些技術將可能應用於中國最先進的軍用無人機，如「九天」計畫，並強化解放軍的對台作戰能力。

Cheung warns that these technological advancements may soon be integrated into China’s most advanced military drone programs, such as the “Jiutian” project, bolstering the PLA’s ability to conduct operations against Taiwan.

他特別指出，中國商用無人機「大疆」幾乎壟斷全球市場，若結合國家戰略資源與「軍民融合」政策，未來中國軍用無人機的進化將對台灣構成更直接的威脅。

He specifically highlighted that DJI, China’s dominant commercial drone manufacturer, already holds a near-monopoly on the global market. If combined with national defense resources and Beijing’s “military-civil fusion” strategy, China’s evolving military drones could pose an even more direct threat to Taiwan’s security.